Changing climate requires shift from refugia to sanctuaries for floodplain forests

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Context Riparian areas are considered to undergo major alterations under changing climate, making floodplain habitats targets for conservation and landscape planning. Protected might provide sanctuaries especially sessile riparian plant species, but these niches not always persistent over time. Objectives We investigate if species of forests provided with suitable habitat within currently protected refugia persist. A coupled-modelling approach is used gain spatially explicit information on new sanctuaries. Methods use distribution models predict the niche 12 Salicion albae 7 Fraxinion forest along rivers in Switzerland, current, moderate extreme climate change scenarios up 80 years future (2100). The spread from current simulated using dispersal vectors life history traits. Results more flexible both than species. main limitation their ability, as only a minority cells colonized during simulation process. predicted presence decreases model. Conclusions Current floodplains do plants studied, still be importance other organisms. Planning communities need focus connectivity maintain viable source populations dynamic riverine landscapes climate.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Landscape Ecology

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0921-2973', '1572-9761']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01224-8